Could the Canucks have something in Arvid Costmar?

It has long been said that great hockey teams are built down the middle, with strength at centre and in goal. If so, the Canucks are in good shape for the future with a trio of young pivots seemingly well-suited to their first- to third-line roles and a solid starter in net backed up by a budding young star and a top prospect getting starter’s minutes in the minors. Keeping the latter trio intact might be a task, what with Jacob Markstrom being a pending UFA and the Seattle expansion draft looming next year. But that’s a topic for another day. Today we look at who might slot in as the Canucks’ fourth-line centre in a few years.

Arvid Costmar

Rarely has the team had a one-two punch down the middle like it currently enjoys with Elias Petterson and Bo Horvat. Petterson is more than fulfilling the promise of his fifth-overall selection a few years ago, averaging almost a point a game over his first two seasons. Horvat is an ideal second-line centre, well able to do the heavy lifting of matching up against top lines and taking key faceoffs. His point production has also increased steadily since being drafted ninth overall in 2013. He broke the 60-point barrier last season with 61 and was on pace for 63 before this season washed out.

The real revelation down the middle, however, has been Adam Gaudette, who simply would not be denied the team’s third-line centre spot after being briefly sent to Utica to start the season. Gaudette has been like found money since being drafted in the fifth round out of the USHL five years ago. The scrawny teenager went on to stardom at Northeastern University in Boston and won the Hobey Baker trophy as college hockey’s best player two years ago. His NHL production broke a half-point per game this past year in only his second NHL season, with 33 of them in 59 games. The sky appears to be his limit.

Gaudette supplanted veteran Brent Sutter, who moved to the wing as his mentor before bouncing around the lineup. Sutter has been plagued by injuries since being signed as a big-ticket free agent the Canucks traded for him and then signed him to a big contract. He has failed to break a half-point per game in any of his five usually-abbreviated seasons in Vancouver. The Canucks finally get out from under his $4.375-million salary after next season. As a pending UFA, Sutter is likely to have a big year in 2020-21, so he could be trade bait at the deadline or retained by the Canucks if they are in position to make a playoff run of their own.

The only real question mark at centre for the foreseeable future is on the fourth line. Jay Beagle was given a four-year contract as a free agent to plug that hole two years ago. He was coming off back-to-back 30-point seasons (if you count playoffs) for the Washington Capitals and a Stanley Cup win in 2018. He has unfortunately become known among Canucks fans as Bagel for his lack of scoring, as he chipped in with only 8 points this season. He has two more years on his contract, after which he will turn 37. The Canucks will doubtless be looking to upgrade.

Which brings us to young Arvid Costmar, who has quietly floated to the top of the team’s centre prospects with a breakout season in Sweden. A seventh-round draft choice last year, Dobber Prospects now ranks him second among Canucks prospects at C with the same talent rating as Gaudette, who is hardly a prospect any more. Curly-haired Cam Robinson calls Costmar a “dynamic offensive pivot” and notes that he shredded Sweden’s SuperElit junior league in his D+1 season, posting an historically-impressive 1.72 points per game. That doubled his 0.86 PPG the previous season. Costmar might not be big, but he’s big enough, and he should get bigger, as he’s still only 18 after being one of the youngest players in last year’s draft.

The scouting report on Costmar is that he is offensively gifted and defensively tenacious, with a high compete level. So what's not to like? Well, apparently he's not a great skater, although there are varying opinions on whether his skating might just be good enough. He plays regularly for Sweden, and if his footspeed is good enough for international play, his game might translate well to the smaller NHL ice. Costmar has even centred new Canuck Nils Hoglander in tournaments.

Some have also cast aspersions on his hockey sense and commitment to the game, as Jay-D Burke did after Costmar was drafted with the third-last pick, 215th overall in last year’s entry draft. “My big concerns with Costmar this year centred around competitiveness,” Burke (no relation) told the Beyond Useless blog.

He’s not the fastest skater and Costmar makes life even harder for himself with his propensity to wander in and out of play without the puck on his stick. I'm not a fan of his puck skills, and his offensive instincts never really jumped out at me as being even above average.

The important thing to remember about Burke is to forget what he says. He's a noted Canucks hater, as he persistently proved on his blog Anti-Canucks Army. Better yet, take whatever Burke says and bank on the opposite. He has been panning Canucks picks for years, never more embarrassingly than on Gaudette, about whom he had to eat major crow a few years ago. He seems to know little about hockey and relies mostly on statistics, or “analytics,” as they’re called these days. I cancelled my free subscription to The Athletic in protest last year after his name showed up on its pages. Burke now hangs out his shingle at EP Rinkside, which is on my list to avoid as a result. Steve Kournianos, who offers his excellent annual draft guide for only $5 at The Draft Analyst, had a much better handle on Costmar a year ago, calling him “a tenacious two-way center who plays with an incredible compete level.”

A noticeable aspect about Costmar’s game is his effort. He is a relentless, physical forechecker with an active stick who continues to apply both front and back pressure. The fact that he logs a lot of ice time and excels throughout critical levels of responsibility pays tribute to his endurance, recovery time and reputation as a versatile forward.

Not only does Costmar play a 200-foot game, noted Kournianos, but he’s also “a creative playmaker who can turn a seemingly harmless possession into opportunities to score.” He also exels at one of the main duties of a fourth-line centre, according to Kournianos, one in which Horvat could certainly use some help. “You can also count on him to take and win key faceoffs, as he was one of the best in the league this past season.” Kournianos, whose scouting reports also appear in The Sporting News, called Costmar “a good skater with an average first step.”

He has a strong lower body that helps in the balance department, and he is quite slippery and agile as he carries the puck through center either rapidly or methodically. Costmar gains the zone with confidence and delays when appropriate, and he is a threat to connect on the tape with a cross-ice cutter or trailer. His numbers may resemble those of a pass-first type, but Costmar will shoot the puck from just about anywhere, even if his shot power is average.

Kournianos liked Costmar more than most for last year's draft, ranking him 101. Future Considerations ranked him 155, McKeen’s had him 180 and Robinson ranked him 137. The Hockey News draft guide, which only profiles the Top 100 prospects, didn’t have him ranked. So far Kournianos is looking smarter than the rest, as Costmar would go a lot higher than the seventh round were he eligible for this year’s draft. His breakout season has firmly placed him on a trajectory to play in North America. It came despite him bouncing around a lot, including eight games for Linköping’s SHL team and six games for Mora IK of the second-division Allsvenskan. Still, the signs were there even last season, which saw him play four games in the first division. “Even playing games in the SHL as a 17 year old is a good sign,” noted Daniel Wagner on the Bulis blog. “Playing a regular shift in those four games is an even better one, as it shows the coaching staff felt they could trust the young centre to hold his own.”

That fits Costmar’s scouting reports, which praise his play away from the puck, both offensively and defensively. Hockey Prospect notes his ability to cut off passing lanes with his smart defensive play, which also makes him an effective penalty killer, while every scouting report makes mention of his ability on the forecheck. Offensively, he plays smart away from the puck, finding gaps in defensive coverage to get open for scoring chances, which he finishes with aplomb.

Robinson puts Costmar’s chances of making The Show at only 40 percent, but you just never know. He should make the SHL on a full-time basis next season, and if he continues to improve he might just be worth offering an NHL contract.